Wouldn’t you love to be a futurist and predict which of the “emerging media” of today will create an enduring and lasting place in our evolving media toolbox?
If I had a crystal ball I could look ahead at the many current forms of “emerging media”, but since I am just a mere mortal, I decided to apply some research and progressive thinking instead. So before we start, here is some explanation of how I arrived at my categories:
1. I differentiate between Media and Technology. Media is a communication medium while technology enables our ability to communicate. In some cases, I have labeled these developments both a media and a technology
2. Truly Emerging to me means that there is not enough experience or data to determine the impact of this media yet. These media or technologies are generally classified in the "other column" in research, or show very rapid, exponential growth patterns.
3. Enduring to me means it isn’t really an “Emerging Media” any longer and has already been embraced into our culture, our behavior, and our marketing strategies. These media and technologies are either growing or have stable usage
4. RIP means to me that their impact and usage will continue to fall until they are either relegated to inconsequential media, or abandoned altogether. They are stagnating in low percentage usage or are showing declining usage among key demographic and consumer sectors.
To start off, recently reported Nielsen Research answers this question, if all of Internet time was condensed into one hour, how would Americans spend their time? This helped me separate the relevant and enduring from the emerging
Then help me decide which media and technologies are on their way to the graveyard of irrelevance, I looked at usage or adoption change over time:
Top 10 Sectors by Share of U.S. Internet Time | ||||
Category | Share of Time June 2010 | Share of Time June 2009 | % Change in Share of Time | |
Social Networks | 22.7% | 15.8% | 43% | |
Online Games | 10.2% | 9.3% | 10% | |
E-mail | 8.3% | 11.5% | -28% | |
Portals | 4.4% | 5.5% | -19% | |
Instant Messaging | 4.0% | 4.7% | -15% | |
Videos/Movies** | 3.9% | 3.5% | 12% | |
Search | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1% | |
Software Manufacturers | 3.3% | 3.3% | 0% | |
Multi-category Entertainment | 2.8% | 3.0% | -7% | |
Classifieds/Auctions | 2.7% | 2.7% | -2% | |
Other* | 34.3% | 37.3% | -8% | |
So, the big "Aha" to me was email. Is it dead or isn't it? A lot of talk centers around whether email is used more or less. Change is not really about volume, but about context and content.
OK, so let's look at my categorization:
| TRULY EMERGING | MEDIA | TECHNOLOGY |
| Short films | X | |
| Widgets | X | |
| In Game Advertising | X | X |
| Smart Phone Apps | X | |
| Crowdsourcing | X | |
| Micro Lending | X | |
| Mobile Giving | X | X |
| Location Based Messaging | X | X |
| ENDURING | ||
| Web Sites | X | X |
| Video Ads | X | |
| RSS Feeds | X | |
| Podcasts | X | |
| Vcasts | X | |
| Blogs and Vlogs | X | |
| Bluetooth | X | |
| Social Networking | X | X |
| Texting | X | |
| RIP | ||
| x | ||
| Banner Ads | x | |
| Chat Rooms | x | x |
| Micro Blogging |
In the weeks ahead, as I learn more from each of you and from the IMC Course, I hope to add or change these categories, and provide some thought provoking rationale for my choices.
Did I leave anything out? Am I wrong in thinking that the ever popular micro-blogging already has one foot in the grave? Let me know your thoughts.
Let me know what you think of my categorization. All comments welcome.
ReplyDeleteCyndi
Love that you have short videos at the top! We are using a lot of these at work. It is great to get a quick message out there!
ReplyDeleteCyndi,
ReplyDeleteThis is a helpful analysis of emerging media and great statistical support. I think email is waning because of the prolific use of text messaging, but will continue to be an enduring media as long as we have laptop and desktop computers, particularly in the corporate office environment where email is still a major communication tool. It's still too inefficient to manage and sort through volumes of email on a mobile phone.
I'm also curious about online auctions. It appears to be maintaining, though slightly down in the past year. I wonder if innovative sites, like QuiBids.com, will spark more interest and time spent in those communities online?
Great post.
Great post Cyndi
ReplyDeleteThe 28% reduction of email usage does not surprise me. However, I would think that the bulk of that reduction is because personal email is being replaced by text messaging. What about business email? I would think that it remains very strong and a valuable tool for day to day business. What would you see as replacing email for business communication and file sharing?